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A coherent, future-instantiated system that does not yet exist, but is treated as if it will; whose realization would create a new stable action space for humanity; and which already reorganizes coordination, investment, and narrative around its anticipated existence.
Score each candidate on 9 axes (0-3 per axis). Maximum: 27 points. Threshold: ≥18 to qualify.
| Axis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-existence | Deployed | Prototype | Partial demos | No instantiation |
| Plausibility | Fantasy | Hand-wavy | Credible theory | Active scientific path |
| Design specificity | Vague | Metaphor | Coarse arch. | Detailed model |
| New action space | Incremental | Narrow new | Broad new cap. | Entirely new verb |
| Roadmap clarity | None | Wishful | Research agenda | Multi-stage roadmap |
| Coordination gravity | Solo | Small niche | Multiple orgs | Global coordination |
| Resource pull | Trivial | Some grants | Serious capital | Massive capital |
| Narrative centrality | Ignored | Peripheral | Often referenced | Justifies actions |
| Pre-real effects | None | Speculation | Market/policy | Institutions reorganize |
For entities that pass Stage 1 (≥18 points), we assess potential impact using 14 dimensions scored 0-5 each.
| Dimension | What you're scoring | 0 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capability Discontinuity | New powers unlocked | Incremental | Phase change |
| Cross-Domain Reach | Sectors touched | Single domain | Many domains |
| Scalability | Speed of global spread | Local/slow | Global/fast |
| Autonomy | Human control needed | Fully manual | Largely autonomous |
| Composability | Embeddability | Standalone | Universal substrate |
| Feedback Intensity | Self-reinforcing loops | Weak | Explosive |
| Irreversibility | Rollback difficulty | Easy | Impossible |
| Power Concentration | Centralizes leverage | Dispersed | Concentrated |
| Externality Magnitude | Size of spillovers | Contained | Civilizational |
| Misuse Asymmetry | Harm vs benefit ratio | Symmetric | Offense-dominant |
| Governance Lag | Gap vs institutions | Aligned | Wildly outpaced |
| Narrative Lock-In | Enforced story | Optional | Totalizing |
| Path Dependency | Futures foreclosed | Minimal | Many locked |
| Human Agency Impact | Effect on choice | Expands | Compresses |
Note on Interpretation
Higher scores indicate greater impact/risk/priority - but are not necessarily "better." Some dimensions (e.g., Misuse Asymmetry, Human Agency Impact) indicate potential dangers at high scores.
For easier comparison, scores are grouped into 3 categories:
Based on Vitalik Buterin's d/acc framework (Defensive/Decentralized/Democratic/Differential Acceleration), this assessment evaluates whether a hyper-entity aligns with values that promote human flourishing, resilience, and freedom.
Score each entity on 4 dimensions (0-5 per dimension). Maximum: 20 points.
| Dimension | What you're scoring | 0 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Collective decision-making | Elite control | Community choice |
| Decentralized | Power distribution | Single point of control | Broadly distributed |
| Defensive | Protection vs harm | Offense-dominant | Defense-favoring |
| Differential | Should be accelerated? | High dual-use risk | Positive asymmetry |
Note on Interpretation
Higher d/acc scores indicate technologies that align with values promoting human flourishing: distributed power, collective decision-making, defensive capabilities, and selective acceleration of beneficial technologies.
Based on Vitalik Buterin's essays: